Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory 02.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING (DUE TO LAND INTERACTION), PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012220Z SSMIS IMAGE AND RADAR IMAGERY,
HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG LLCC WITH MULTIPLE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. TAIWAN RADAR FIXES
CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETING A SMALL, SHORT-TERM (6
HOURS) LOOP OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING
TO TURN BACK ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
NORTHERN TAIWAN HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSIVE AND CURRENTLY SHOW ONLY
10-20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 30-40 KNOT GUSTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 10W'S CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SEPARATED BY ABOUT 535 NM AND IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE TO 515 NM BY TAU
12 AND 455 NM BY TAU 24. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WEAK BINARY
INTERACTION WITH 11W, RESULTING IN A CYCLONIC, RAPIDLY DISSIPATING
TRACK FOR 11W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
ACCELERATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 01/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NARROW STR EXTENDING FROM THE KOREAN PENINSULA
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CHINA WITH A SHORT-WAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANCHURIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK. TY
10W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS TAIWAN AND WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINA COAST BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER TAU 36.//
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