Tropical Storm TWENTYNINE Advisory 26.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
579 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 260000Z HIMAWARI
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 252350Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
LARGE SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 29W IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A 252200Z AMSU
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION SHOWS TD 29W IS A WEAK WARM CORE
SYSTEM. TD 29W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AS
TD 29W TRACKS NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STR IT WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 29W WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES BY TAU
36 WHILE REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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