Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory 21.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED 347NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS ELONGATED AND OFFSET TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF A PARTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AS THE SYSTEM
BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, AS
EVIDENCED BY LOW LEVEL COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINES WRAPPING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLC IN THE 202033Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS
WHICH ALSO DEPICTS THE LLC BEING DISPLACED FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND CONTINUE TO VENTILATE THE OFFSET
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), FOR NOW, REMAIN WARM AND
CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 20-25KTS. THIS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE
OFFSETTING THE OUTFLOW AND SST, RESULTING IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COL BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST THAT HAS
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KTS BY TAU 36. ALSO, BY TAU 24, IT WILL BECOME
FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE STATIONARY FRONT.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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