Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory 02.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY
FRAGMENTATION ALONG THE EYEWALL AND COOLING OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
ALONG THE MAIN FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20-NM
RAGGED, FRAGMENTED, BUT DEFINED EYE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF CONSTRAINED AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5/102KTS TO T6.0/115KTS AND REFLECTS
THE WEAKENING STAGE. SSTS REMAIN WARM AT 29C, UPPER LEVEL RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALSO REMAINS STRONG, AND VWS AT 15-20 KTS IS MITIGATED BY THE
STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE BANDS DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE NOW ERODING AS THEY MAKE CONTACT
WITH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTH KOREA AND THE ISLAND OF KYUSHU, JAPAN.
TY MAYSAK IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) TO THE EAST.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MAYSAK WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL WEST OF BUSAN NEAR TAU
18, DRAG OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA WITH A BRIEF SPLASH OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN JUST AFTER TAU 24 BEFORE CROSSING INTO MANCHURIA NEAR TAU 30. IT
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING SSTS AND INTERACTION WITH THE
SOUTH KOREAN COAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A MODERATE TYPHOON AT 85
KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
WITH THE ADDITION OF FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES
OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA. CONCURRENTLY AT TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 24. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF
DISSIPATION OVER THE RUGGED TAEBAEK MOUNTAIN RANGES PRIOR TO TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK PLACED JUST LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
THE AFUM TRACK, WHICH IS THE SOLE EXTREME RIGHT OF TRACK OUTLIER. THERE
IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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