Tropical Storm LEKIMA Advisory 06.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 468 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CORE
WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
052225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 10W
IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WHICH IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. TS 10W HAS A STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHILE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS
CONSTRAINED BY TS 09W TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TS 10W IS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES BUILD. IMPROVING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TS 10W TO STEADILY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AS TS 10W TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD IT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM TD 11W AND TS 09W WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72, TS 10W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL
CAUSE TS 10W TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
ALSO BY TAU 96, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE AND CAUSE TS 10W TO TURN NORTHWARD. AT TAU 96, TS 10W WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS
IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 375 NM BY
TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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