Tropical Storm LEKIMA Advisory 06.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE AND AN INCIPIENT EYE. A 062211Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
COMPACT CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 070040Z ASCAT BULLSEYE ALSO
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND SHOWS NUMEROUS 50-55 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30C). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TY 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
NORTHERN TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 185NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72 NEAR TAIWAN, THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK WHICH COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER
TAU 48. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NEAR TAIWAN.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS
IN A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO THE EAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR EASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
AFTER TAU 72 AND IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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