Tropical Storm NICHOLAS Advisory 12.09.

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)

BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   6(17)   2(19)   1(20)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)

FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   1(13)

LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   3(15)   2(17)

CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  10(18)   3(21)   2(23)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)   2(18)
JASPER TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   3(21)   1(22)
KOUNTZE TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  13(18)   3(21)   1(22)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)  12(37)   1(38)   1(39)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)

HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  18(31)   2(33)   1(34)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)

FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)  13(37)   1(38)   1(39)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   2( 2)  18(20)  20(40)   5(45)   1(46)   1(47)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   1(13)   1(14)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  15(24)   2(26)   1(27)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   1( 1)  14(15)  27(42)  10(52)   1(53)   X(53)
MATAGORDA TX   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)
MATAGORDA TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   1( 1)  19(20)  27(47)   8(55)   X(55)   1(56)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   X(16)   1(17)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ROCKPORT TX    34  X   X( X)  11(11)  17(28)   6(34)   1(35)   X(35)
ROCKPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
ROCKPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)   5(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   5( 5)  46(51)  11(62)   2(64)   X(64)   1(65)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)   1(14)

HARLINGEN TX   34  X   1( 1)  19(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)   1(26)
HARLINGEN TX   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   3( 3)  25(28)   3(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  1  49(50)  20(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   1(71)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   5( 5)  10(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)

LA PESCA MX    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
FORECASTER BROWN