Tropical Storm KHANUN Advisory 16.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TS 24W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED, WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMOVED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS. EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM (30-35 KNOTS) AS
THE LLCC BEGINS TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
     A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
     B. FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEVOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION, THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND THE DEEPENING SURFACE MONSOON TROUGH. GIVEN THE HOSTILE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPOSED BY THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TS 24W
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER NOW
EXPECTED BY TAU 24, PRIOR TO A SECOND LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND DISSIPATION
SCENARIO.//
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