Tropical Storm TALIM Advisory 13.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. A 122204Z 91
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
RAGGED 40 NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 78 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). TYPHOON TALIM CURRENTLY HAS A STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 24. FROM TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48 THE
SYSTEM WILL RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 72. PERSISTENT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS THE
SYSTEM TRACKING 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF CHINA, PREVENTING LAND BASED
WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, AFTERWARD, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS GRADUALLY
SPREAD AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES AND TRACKS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE
TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY TALIM WILL ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN
KYUSHU SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96 AND TRACK ACROSS KYUSHU AND ONTO
HONSHU. AFTER LANDFALL, TALIM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN, HIGH
VWS, CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TRACKING OVER LAND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE HWRF, TRACKING
NORTH OF SASEBO, GFS, AND NAVGEM, WHICH HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING
SOUTH OF KYUSHU AND MAKING LANDFALL ON HONSHU. BASED ON THE SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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