MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 27// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 062224Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATUS OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 09W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY CHAN-HOM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 120. VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, COOLER SST AND LOWER OHC VALUES, AS WELL AS LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 96, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN