Tropical Storm HAIKUI Advisory 07.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062357Z SSMIS
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A RATHER LARGE, ELONGATED 50 NM RAGGED
EYE WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W HAS MAINTAINED A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 12W IS
BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF
SHANGHAI AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM JUST AFTER TAU 24. A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND PARTIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL
ALLOW TY 12W TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL
LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 24, LAND INTERACTION AND FRICTIONAL DRAG WILL
DETERIORATE THE LLCC AS IT BEGINS DISSIPATING OVERLAND. THERE IS
STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION AS THE REMNANTS OF 12W MOVE
INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST RUN, WITH GFDN
BEING THE RIGHT MOST OUTLIER AND GFS THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER, WITH
ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS MAKING A DRASTIC NORTHEAST TURN AROUND TAU 48.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC MODELS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE AIDS AND THE TIMING OF THE
NORTHEAST TURN AS THE REMNANTS INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING FROM CENTRAL CHINA.//
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