MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IMAGERY FROM THE MIYAKOJIMA RADAR STATION SHOWS MODERATE RAIN BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLY JET AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A TUTT CELL FORMING TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST IS STARTING TO ENHANCE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE ALSO WARM NEAR 29 CELSIUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TS 05W ON A NORTHWARD COURSE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE SUPPORTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT AS SSTS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SASEBO, JAPAN AROUND TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN TS 05W AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS HONSHU TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TS 05W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN