Tropical Storm PEIPAH Advisory 03.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 022233Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS TWO FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES SPIRALING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE EASTERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED
AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS
FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AS
WELL. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING
AND GRADUALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TOWARD THE ISLAND OF PALAU. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC, LOW TO MODERATE VWS, AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE ISLAND OF PALAU
AND INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST AFTER
TAU 72, WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH CURRENTLY
LIMITED, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A
SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT INDICATING STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE AND OVERALL
INFANCY OF THE SYSTEM, THERE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.//
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