Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory 08.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A
RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND, A 072329Z TRMM 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE TRMM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS AND
LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. TY 23W HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT
UNDERGOES ETT AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
24 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU 24, TY 23W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, CROSSING THE SEA OF JAPAN
AND NORTHERN HONSHU BEFORE EMERGING BACK OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH DUE TO TIGHT
AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE JTWC FORECAST
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST, POSITIONED SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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