MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 142214Z AMSU 89 IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 18W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TY MALAKAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. FROM TAU 36 TO 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FOREWARD SPEED AT IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND TRACK ON A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS WILL ALSO INCREASE RAPIDLY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120 LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING OF TY MALAKAS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN KYUSHU BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN