MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 669 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE DEGRADED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 15W HAS DRIFTED DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VWS; HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. TD 15W IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW, SIGNIFYING A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS BEGIN TO DROP AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN