MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM WEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SOME FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. A 301736Z SSMIS PARTIAL PASS SHOWS CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REINFORCES THIS WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS AFFECTING TS CHAN-HOM. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE STR BEING THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. BEYOND THAT, INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON CHAN- HOM'S TRACK, FORCING A TRACK SPEED SLOW-DOWN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS WELL AS A FLATTER TRACK, WITH PERHAPS A SOUTHERN COMPONENT. WHILE MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST, THERE WILL BE HIGH OHC VALUES ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. C. IN THE EXTENDING FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT TS 09W TO ABSORB THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE (94W) AS IT CHOKES THE WEAKER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE OVERALL STEERING ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT OF A GENERALLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING STR RETREATS TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN