MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 16// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 192246Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED CENTER WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 200110Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 28 KNOTS AND MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. GALE FORCE WINDS WINDS STRETCH SOUTH IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE FUELING THE PERSISTENT HEAVY CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL WIND RADII CONSENSUS (RVCN) AND REFLECTS THE EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS. TS 06W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 45NM AT TAU 12, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AS TS 06W APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF SOUTH KOREA NEAR TAU 12, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY TAU 36.// NNNN NNNN