MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED AFTER IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR WENZHOU, CHINA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 032033Z 37GHZ SSMIS COLORIZED MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT MATCHED WITH AN LLC FEATURE ON COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING HUZHEN, 10NM TO THE WEST, AND XIANJU, 11NM TO THE EAST. ABOVE THE RUGGED TERRAIN, TS 03W IS UNDER STRONG (25KT+) VWS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS HAGUPIT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE RAGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN CHINA WEST OF SHANGHAI AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL EXIT INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 25KTS BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO WATER. THE ADDITION OF COOL SST IN THE YELLOW SEA WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF LAND PASSAGE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN