Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory 06.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
CONSTRICTING 14NM EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED MOISTURE
WITHIN THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE, ILLUSTRATING REDUCED DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. A 052256Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLOSED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH INCREASED CONVECTION WITHIN THE SPIRAL
BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
ABOVE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
HELD AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY IS STILL AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, TY 13W WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY.
AS TY SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE COAST OF TAIWAN, EXPECT SOME
INTENSIFICATION AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IMPROVES DUE TO A RE-ORIENTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. JUST BEFORE TAU 48, TY 13W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST OF TAIWAN AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND. TY SOUDELOR WILL CROSS THE TAIWAN
STRAIT AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA
NEAR QUANZHOU.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY SOUDELOR WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND, LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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