Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory 06.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MSI
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED WELL-STRUCTURED LLCC WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EXPOSED FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENED STRUCTURE AND DECREASED
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION AND REACHING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT AND A WEAKENING
TREND ARE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER TAIWAN.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AMONG
AVAILABLE TRACKERS, COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND POSSIBLE WEAK
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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