Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory 06.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE
BANDS, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT REMAINS ILL-DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY
NOTCH FEATURE ON A 89 GHZ 061151Z GPM MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRACK
AND WEAK INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM
GAINS VERTICAL DEPTH, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH ASSUMES STEERING.
IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS, AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES IN-PHASE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION,
REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, REACHING
95 KNOTS BY THE END OF FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES GUAM. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.//
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