Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory 12.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
ELONGATE WITH SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINING ON THE WESTERN SIDE AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE ON A COMMA APPEARANCE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AMAMI RADAR WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AS THE LLCC APPEARS TO
BE BREAKING APART. THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KTS DUE TO LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (UP TO 60KTS) VWS. TY
NOUL IS RAPIDLY TRACKING NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
STR TO THE EAST AND ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST,
BEGINNING ETT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE
ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GO XT. TS
NOUL WILL COMPLETE XT BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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