Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory 06.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 19 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 052148Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALONG WITH 052355Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON NOUL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
06 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES TRANSITION TO THE BUILDING
STR. AFTERWARDS, TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ALLOWING TY 06W TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY. BEYOND TAU 24, TY 06W WILL PICK UP TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STR AXIS, WHERE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
INCREASE ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 06W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 96, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH CAUSING A BREAK IN THE STR AND
SHIFTING TYPHOON NOUL POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF LUZON. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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