Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory 13.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 669 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES
AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE DEGRADED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 15W HAS DRIFTED DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VWS;
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. TD 15W IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW, SIGNIFYING A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS BEGIN
TO DROP AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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