Tropical Storm KUJIRA Advisory 23.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF AVAILABLE
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND SUPPORTED BY HAIKOU RADAR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN RJTD 2.0 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD KUJIRA IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, TD 08W MAY
RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BACK TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT
TRANSITS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN, PRIOR TO
MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AROUND TAU
24. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IN MOVES INLAND.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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