Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory 05.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 889 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS CURVED
BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A RAGGED 25-NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE WHICH IS PROVIDING A HIGHLY-EFFECTIVE RADIAL
OUTFLOW MECHANISM. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, PEAKING AT 140 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY NEOGURI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYSHU, JAPAN. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM FIRST BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR WESTERN JAPAN. TY
08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DECREASING
SST AND, EVENTUALLY, LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN AND NAVGEM, THE LEFTMOST OUTLIERS THAT ARE
BIASED TOWARDS AN UNLIKELY WIDER TURN.//
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