Tropical Storm NANGKA Advisory 16.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR
55//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND RADAR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND WEAKENING TREND.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN MODERATE
VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG WESTERLIES
FLOW. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND EXIT
INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND LATER
CROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE
INCREASING VWS, COLD ALONG-TRACK SSTS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (BELOW 26
CELSIUS), AND LAND INTERACTION OVER NORTHERN HONSHU WILL LEAD TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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