Tropical Storm NARI Advisory 09.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
523 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 090109Z
METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT
EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. TD 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS LUZON. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 12
DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS. THEREAFTER, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL
IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
70 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 24W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
UNTIL IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TD 24W WILL RE-INTENSIFY
AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES TO AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
TD 24W SHOULD TURN ONTO A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR. BASED ON THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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