Tropical Storm FITOW Advisory 06.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED
AND ELONGATED EYE AS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER CONTINUE TO UNRAVEL AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW. HOWEVER, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY SOLID EVEN AS THE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL
HAS DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION
AND ON CLOSELY-SPACED RADAR AND POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD TO
REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY FITOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR WENZHOU, CHINA, SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TY 22W WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, DISSIPATING AS
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.  //
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