Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory 08.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN THE DEGREE OF WRAP INTO A BANDING LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE ALIGNED WITH THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK FIXES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF
THE STR EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
EXTENSION RECEDES AND A SECONDARY STR LEAF BUILDING IN FROM MAINLAND
CHINA ASSUMES STEERING. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL DEFLECT WESTWARD AS THE
NEW STR BUILDS. SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24, TS 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, DRAG WESTWARD ACROSS THE CHINESE SEABOARD.
TS LINFA WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE HERE ONWARDS. AFTER
LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM AND DISSIPATE IT JUST WEST OF HONG KONG BY END OF FORECAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY VARIED IN BOTH SPEED AND
LOCATION OF THE TC TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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