Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory 17.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING, MOSTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH, HAVE SLIGHTLY
DEEPENED AND TIGHTENED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED A 25-NM RAGGED EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 162229Z SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE HAS SPED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
AS THE STEERING RIDGE, FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CHINA, FURTHER
BUILT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS STRONG EVEN AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW DIMINISHED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON KAI-TAK IS NOW POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN, BEFORE
MAKING A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM TO THE EAST
OF HANOI. DURING THIS PASSAGE, THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH WBAR TO THE RIGHT OF AND EGRR TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE AND OFFSETTING EACH OTHER. THE CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS HIGH.    //
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