MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 36// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ONLY SMALL AREAS OF REMNANT CONVECTION FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AN EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), AND IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS). WHILE THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED, IT IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 02W IS EXPERIENCING SEVERELY UNFAVORABLE (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO BEING SITUATED UNDER THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 25 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, THEN SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED BY TAU 36 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH AND PUSHES THE WEAK CIRCULATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN