MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 08// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE OBSCURED LLCC. A 202355Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED CENTER WITH A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ACCOMPANYING ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.9 (63 KNOTS). TY 02W LIES IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VWS. HOWEVER, THE RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER, AS THE STORM MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE OVERALL IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION APPARENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WARM, SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, WITH THE RECURVE SCENARIO NOW BEING THE FAVORED SOLUTION BEYOND TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT BULLSEYE AT 202307Z PROVIDED EXCELLENT DATA TO SUPPORT ADJUSTING THE WIND RADII, WHICH ARE MUCH SMALLER TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY INTENSITY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48 TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS COOL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF ONLY 65NM AT TAU 48. THEREAFTER THE MODELS DIVERGE QUICKLY, WITH SPREAD INCREASING TO 155NM BY TAU 72 REFLECTING A VARIANCE IN THE MODEL INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH. C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND REFORMS TO THE EAST OF TY 02W, ALLOWING FOR A CURVE TO THE NORTH BEYOND TAU 72. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS HOVER NEAR 26 CELSIUS, OFFSETTING THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREEING ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CURVE. THE ECMWF REPRESENTS THE SLOWEST TURN AND LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE REPRESENTS THE QUICKEST TURN AND IS THE EASTERN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH A 355NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 120, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72.// NNNN NNNN