Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory 22.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD. THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE
FEEDER BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL AND BREAK UP. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON RADAR
FIXES FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES IS PROVIDING
POLEWARD VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEN
RECURVE SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VWS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
CONCURRENTLY, TS 16W WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING
A WEAK COLD-CORE LOW IN THE YELLOW SEA BY END OF FORECAST. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES WITH GFNI ON THE
LEFT AND HWFI ON THE RIGHT MARGINS OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
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